Former spymasters are never short of either ideas or theories suggesting resolution of an issue. More so if it happens to be a geo-politico-security (all jumbled up) subject such as Jammu and Kashmir.
There has been a role for spymasters, at times diligently played, ever since 1948 accession of the then state with the Union of India. However, on other occasions, and that happened more frequently, their over-reach complicated the matter; at times beyond repair.
Why this backdrop on spymasters and J&K, more so Kashmir? There is a reason behind, as every time a top spymaster, mostly retired, makes some observation, it cannot be summarily dismissed.
And if it happens that the particular spymaster or masters have been over the decades in the thick of action in the Kashmir Valley and suddenly decide to write their memoir with a controversial twist, there is no scope of ignoring even a casual comment. And then the twists and turns continue to show their interest in the events.
Former RAW chief Mr A S Dulat, who has the unique distinction of heading the Intelligence Bureau (IB) also, after retiring was advisor on Jammu and Kashmir to the central government during the tenure of former Prime Minister Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, stirred a hornet’s nest when he suggested a “Umar-Omar” accord on the lines of the “double Farooq” accord between former chief minister and National Conference supremo Dr Farooq Abdullah and the then Mirwaiz of Kashmir late Maulvi Farooq.
By “Uma-Omar” he meant a similar understanding between the current Mirwaiz and son of the Maulvi, Umar Farooq, and Dr Abdullah’s son Omar Abdullah.
At first sight it seems an interesting proposition. Could be another experiment in the line of never ending but sparingly succeeding political experimentation in Jammu and Kashmir. Will the history repeat itself and have a better fate?
Although he no more holds any advisory position on J&K, either in Delhi or in the Union Territory, Mr Dulat’s interest in Kashmir has not waned a wee-bit and he has been airing his views on the issue as openly as ever. Be it through his memoir focused on Kashmir or regular interviews with the media.
His latest suggestion came during the course of an interview to a local YouTube channel from Kashmir wherein he advocated dialogue and holding assembly elections.
“Why not a double Umar-Omar accord as the current Mirwaiz, I feel has an important role to play in Kashmir’s mainline politics. If a double Farooq accord can happen, why not this,” he suggested while talking about prevailing situation of flux in the Union Territory with uncertainty looking large over holding assembly elections.
Given his proximity to the Abdullah family, as he boastfully described himself as a friend of Dr Abdullah, his cannot be termed as an off-the-cuff remark or for some may not be an objective one. Or a suggestion made in a lighter vein. And to back up his suggestion, he claimed that certain National Conference quarters were working on this idea and he even named the party general secretary and former MLA from a constituency located in the Mirwaiz domain, Mr Ali Mohammed Sagar.
Given the fact that “double Farooq” alliance that took part in the late 1980s proved to be a disaster, Mr Dulat’s latest suggestion, nevertheless, cannot be dismissed summarily. Does it mean consolidation of mainstream political forces, if the young Mirwaiz agrees to it, particularly in the central Kashmir where his Awami Action Committee (AAC) has pockets of influence and thereby further increasing and consolidating the spectrum of the mainstream politics.
In fact, during “double Farooq” accord at least two of its candidates had contested on National Conference symbol and won. This accord was meant to bury the running “sher-bakra” run-ins (National Conference (read Sheikh Abdullah) supporters were known as ‘shers’ (lions) and the Mirwaiz camp as the ‘bakras’(goats).
No two eras or situations are incomparable more so if it happens to be as fragile a situation as Kashmir particularly post August 5, 2019 Constitutional changes diluting the Article 370. Yes, there is considerable improvement in the security situation in the UT. And by Mr Dulat’s own admission, normally his views on Kashmir run opposite to another high-profile spymaster and current National Security Advisor Mr Ajit Doval, “the separatism in Kashmir is dead. But there is a need to start a dialogue with mainstream political parties before conducting elections,” he told PTI in another interview. This line of caution has a subtle but strong message.
The two doctrines that ran parallel for decades seems to be converging at least on this issue. Though not necessarily on the dialogue quotient which Mr Dulat has of late qualified by limiting it to mainstream political parties as against his earlier stand of talks with even with the separatists wherein he had played an important role in the past.
Mr Dulat’s “double Umar-Omar” proposition under the present context would have an entirely different meaning than the 1980s experiment. This is despite the fact that the late Mirwaiz was at that point in time was part of the political mainstream. He was a pivotal figure in the then Janata Party, in Kashmir, along with Mr Abdul Ghani Lone, and Mr Ghulam Mohiuddin Karra.
As the providence had it both Mirwaiz Farooq and Mr Abdul Ghani Lone drifted to separatist politics and became part of, now defunct, All Party Hurriyat Conference, and were brutally assassinated by the gun-totting terrorists. While Mr Sajjad Lone has since returned to mainstream, Mirwaiz Umar has been under house-arrest following August 5, 2019 dilution of Article 370 and related developments, and has maintained a studied silence.
“The Hurriyat Conference chairman Mirwaiz Farooq, who has been under house arrest since August 4, 2019, has a role in Kashmir politics. There is a leader who I feel has a role and that is Mirwaiz but he has been kept in his house. So, we will only know when he comes out. He has been a mainstream and whenever he is allowed to come out, and I think it should be done as quickly as possible, then we will see which way he goes,” Mr Dulat added.
The biggest imponderable in the way of Mr Dulat’s observation taking a practical shape is whether this accord, if at all, will happen on its own as was the case with “double Farooq” accord or the formation of Congress-PDP government in 2002 during Vajpayee government, without any official intervention. The “double Farooq” accord had taken place at its own , when there was a Congress government at the Centre. Will the history repeat itself and will it happen without the intervention of the current Central dispensation?
Such a possibility goes against the grain of politico-electoral thinking of the ruling BJP which wishes to win every electoral battle more so in Jammu and Kashmir where it has heavily invested particularly in terms of its political agenda. It will be interesting to see if Mr Dulat’s prophecy comes true and at what cost and value.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author.
The facts, analysis, assumptions and perspective appearing in the article do not reflect the views of GK.